Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-10-10

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Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Steady as China Raises RRR, not Rates

Risk sentiments remain steady after China raised reserve requirement ratio by another 50 basis point as CPI data to be released tomorrow are expected to show accelerating inflation to 4.7% yoy. Markets are relived that China opted to raised the reserve requirement, which is a milder measure, rather than a rate hike, which is more potent. Aussie has indeed strengthened after the announcement, also boosted by strong trade data from China today, which showed exports and imports soared to record highs in November.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 83.56; (P) 83.93; (R1) 84.40; More.

With 83.43 minor support intact, further rise is still in favor in USD/JPY. Decisive break of 84.39 resistance will confirm that whole rebound from 80.29 has resumed and should target 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89). On the downside, below 83.43 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 82.33 support. Note that break there will revive the case that rebound from 80.29 is completed and will bring deeper fall towards 80 psychological level again.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q4 -8 14.3 13.3
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Nov 0.90% 1.00% 0.90% 0.80%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Households Nov 40.4 42.3 40.9
09:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Nov 0.30% 0.30% 0.60%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Nov 3.90% 4.00% 4.00%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Nov 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Nov 3.30% 3.50% 3.30% 3.20%
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Oct -1.7B -2.0B -2.5B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Oct -38.7B -$43.8B -$44.0B
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Nov 1.30% 0.80% 0.90%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Dec P 72 71.6
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Nov -$130.0B -$120.3B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3260

Euro's retreat after intra-day rebound to 1.3283 has retained our bearishness and consolidation with downside bias remains for the fall from 1.3452 top to resume to 1.3150/54 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2969 to 1.3452) and possibly towards 1.3100.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9905

Despite aussie's rebound from this week's low at 0.9753, as long as resistance at 0.9966 (this week's high) holds, further consolidation would take place and mild downside bias remains for another retreat, a break of said support would signal the rebound from 0.9536 (A leg bottom of the major correction) has ended and bring weakness to 0.9700 and later towards 0.9620/30.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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