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Mid-Day Report: Aussie Hardest Hit in Risk Averse MarketsAussie is the worst performer in today's risk-aversion markets. Market sentiments are still weighed down by geopolitical tension in Korea as well as Eurozone debt crisis. In addition, Aussie is pressured by speech from RBA Governor Stevens that imminent rate hike is unlikely. He qualified current rates as "a little tighter than average", and expects a strong Aussie would help curb inflationary pressures. Besides, China's finance ministry fails to draw enough demand for a bill sale today, first time since June, and that suggests shortage of cash at banks and gives some pressure on commodities, then then Aussie. AUD/USD has completed a head and shoulder top pattern after breaking 0.9651 support today and steeper selloff could lie ahead. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5724; (P) 1.5759; (R1) 1.5793; More. GBP/USD's fall accelerates further to as low as 1.5651 so far today and is pressing 1.5649 support level. Intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline. Decisive break of 1.5649 will indicate that rise from 1.5296 is finished. More importantly, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, whole rebound from 1.4230 might be completed too. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 1.5296 and below. On the other hand, strong rebound from current level, and break of 1.5836 minor resistance will suggest that fall from 1.6298 might be finished and flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.6093 resistance for confirmation. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Portugal May Be The Next To Seek EU Bailout, Following Greece And IrelandIreland's request for funding from EU/ECB/IMF fails to ease fear of contagion to peripheral European economies. Portugal is regarded by bond market investors and economists as the next country to be bailed out, after Greece and Ireland. Despite José Sócrates', Portuguese prime minister's, pledge that 'Portugal doesn't need anyone's help and will solve its own problems' and the European Commission's affirmation that 'there are no analogies to be made. As the Irish case is very specific', Portuguese CDS continued to surge. Yield spreads between Portuguese bonds and German bunds also widened. While Portugal does not have immediate need for money and it fiscal status is better than many of its neighbors, a bailout depends highly on the risks of contagion. In our opinion, the problem in Portugal is different from Ireland. The root problem is the lack of growth and structural weakness for the former while that for the latter is the outsized banking sector. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9950As the greenback has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.0041, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to intra-day support at 0.9985 cannot be ruled out, however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9935) should contain downside and bring another upmove to indicated upside target at 1.0050/55 (50% projection of 0.9588-1.0000 measuring from 0.9849). Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3330As the single currency has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.3200, suggesting consolidation would take place and minor correction to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3268) and possibly the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3294) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3336) and bring another decline. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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