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Daily Report: Dollar Rally Resumes as North Korea Warns of WarDollar resumes recent rally today as Korea tension and Eurozone debt crisis come back to haunt the markets and triggers selloff in Asian equities. North Korean warned today that they're "greatly enraged at the provocation" from South Korea, and any "escalated confrontation", including planned US-South Korea naval exercises, would bring the peninsula closer to war. Also, South Korean's military said two explosions was heard off Yeonpyeong island, which North Korea bombarded earlier this week, and they're checking the origin of the sound. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9761; (P) 0.9806; (R1) 0.9851; More AUD/USD's break of 0.9707 indicates that decline from 1.0181 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9651 cluster support intact (38.2% retracement of 0.8770 to 1.0181 at 0.9642). As noted before decisive break there will head and shoulder top reversal pattern and will turn outlook bearish for decline towards 0.9404 key support level. Nevertheless, strong rebound from from 0.9642/51, followed by break of 0.9953 resistance, will retain the bullish outlook in AUD/USD and indicates that recent up trend is still in progress for another high above 1.0181 before making a top. |
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Portugal May Be The Next To Seek EU Bailout, Following Greece And IrelandIreland's request for funding from EU/ECB/IMF fails to ease fear of contagion to peripheral European economies. Portugal is regarded by bond market investors and economists as the next country to be bailed out, after Greece and Ireland. Despite José Sócrates', Portuguese prime minister's, pledge that 'Portugal doesn't need anyone's help and will solve its own problems' and the European Commission's affirmation that 'there are no analogies to be made. As the Irish case is very specific', Portuguese CDS continued to surge. Yield spreads between Portuguese bonds and German bunds also widened. While Portugal does not have immediate need for money and it fiscal status is better than many of its neighbors, a bailout depends highly on the risks of contagion. In our opinion, the problem in Portugal is different from Ireland. The root problem is the lack of growth and structural weakness for the former while that for the latter is the outsized banking sector. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3370As the single currency has remained under pressure, suggesting recent decline from 1.4283 top is still in progress and may extend weakness to 1.3245/50 (50% projection of 1.3633 to 1.3284 measuring from 1.3422) but reckon 1.3205/10 (61.8% projection) would hold from here due to loss of near term downward momentum, bring rebound thereafter. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9950As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 1.0000, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and may extend further gain towards indicated upside target at 1.0050/55 (50% projection of 0.9588-1.0000 measuring from 0.9849), reckon near term overbought condition would limit upside to 1.0100/05 (61.8% projection) and risk from there remains for a correction later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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