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Daily Report: Euro Steady after EUR 85b (66.5b) Irish BailoutMarkets are steady today as reactions to Ireland's bailout was mild. Ireland and EU/IMF reached a bailout agreement over the weekend. The financial package will cover financing needs up to EUR 85b but unusually EUR 17.5b of it will come from Irish government cash reserve and from the national pension fund. So that's effectively, EUR 66.5b instead of EUR 85b which is lower than markets expectation. An extra year is also given to Ireland to reduce its deficit from current 32% to 3% of GDP, that is, by 2015. Interest payment will be at 5.8%. Whether the Irish problem is somewhat passed now, markets will start to speculate who's next, whether's it's Portugal or Spain. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 83.68; (P) 83.93; (R1) 84.30; More. No change in USD/JPY's outlook, as noted before, recent rebound from 80.29 is still expected to continue as long as 82.78 support holds. Such rebound should target 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) next. Nevertheless, break of 82.78 will indicate that USD/JPY has topped out and will flip bias back to the downside and turn focus back to 80 key psychological support. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Market Sentiment Lifted in the Near-term as Irish Bailout Deal FinalizedIreland and EU/IMF reached a bailout agreement over the weekend. The financial package will cover financing needs up to 85B euro but unusually 17.5B euro of it will come from Irish government cash reserve and from the national pension fund. Several terms are favorable for Ireland. For instance, senior bondholders of Irish banks are not subject to haircuts, there is no condition that Ireland must raise its 12.5% corporation tax and Ireland has been given one extra year, to 2015, in order to reduce its budget deficit to below 3% of GDP. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup also agreed on ways to deal with post 2013 bailouts and collective action clauses would be part of all new euro area government bonds starting in June 2013. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9950Despite Friday's brief rise to 1.0055 (reached indicated projection target), the subsequent retreat after faltering below this resistance today suggests a minor top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 0.9950-60 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9849 to 1.0055 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) but reckon 0.9928 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold, bring another upmove later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3355Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.3182, as the single currency has rebounded from there, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and retracement to 1.3310 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3389 to 1.3182) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.3342-53) and bring another decline. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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