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Mid-Day Report: Euro Pares Gain ahead of EU Finance Ministers Meeting and Ireland Budget VoteEuro pares gain against dollar today as markets are concerned on the uncertain outcome from EU finance ministers meeting today. IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn will join the meeting and discuss an IMF report about the situation of the European debt markets and would call on EU finance ministers to boost the facility and urge ECB to step up its bond purchases. However opinions on the proposal are mixed among finance ministers. Belgian finance minister Renders said that the fund might be expanded if ministers decide to introduce a larger permanent facility. Meanwhile, ECB Trichet urged the governments to consider such a move last week. However, Germany and France are clearly objecting such an idea. In addition, there are speculations that Portugal would be in focus too as other Eurozone counterparts exert pressures on Portugal to apply for a bailout. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9657; (P) 0.9803; (R1) 0.9882; More. USD/CHF's strong recovery and break of 0.9813 minor resistance indicates that a temporary low is formed. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some consolidations would be seen first. But after all, we're holding on the bearish view. That is, recovery from 0.9462 has already completed with three waves up to 1.0065 after hitting 100% projection of 0.9462 to 0.9970 from 0.9547 at 1.0055. Whole decline from 1.1729 is likely resuming. Hence, we'd expect upside of the current recovery to be limited well below 1.0065 resistance and bring another fall. Below 0.9725 will target 0.9463 first and break will target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. |
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| Special Reports |
RBA And RBNZ's Monetary Policies In DecemberAustralia's GDP growth in 3Q10 missed market expectations and signaled the RBA's full-year forecasts will not be achieved. The question for monetary policy is whether weak data will follow in the near-term. If that's the case, the central bank may need to push the next rate hike later. We will keep monitoring upcoming economic data but for the time being, we retain our view that the RBA will set policy in a forward-looking manner and raise the cash 25 bps higher in 1Q11. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3200Although euro has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.3250, above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3331) is needed to signal low has been formed and bring rebound to 1.3380/85, otherwise, near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.3452 to bring retracement of last week's rise to 1.3210-11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3060 to 1.3452 and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2969 to 1.3452) before prospect of another bounce. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.9810Friday's rally adds credence to our view that the fall from 1.0183 has formed a temporary low at 0.9536 (A leg of the major correction) and although aussie has retreated after marginal rise to 0.9930 today, pullback should be limited to 0.9810/15 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9621 to 0.993) and bring another rise later. Above said resistance would extend gain to 0.9955 (b leg top) but reckon psychological resistance at 1.0000 would hold. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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