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Mid-Day Report: Euro Weakens again as Irish Bailout Fails to Ease Contagion WorriesEuro dips today as the EUR 85b bailout of Ireland fails to ease investor's concern on contagion. While CDS on Ireland does decline mildly after the bailout, CDS on Spain rises to all time high above 330 bps while that of Portugal also jumps to above 520 bps. Speculations continue to center around the possibility of bailout for Portugal and Spain. There are rumors that Portugal will eventually get a bailout of around EUR 50b. Italy sold EUR 6.8b of bonds today, with EUR 3b of 2021 bonds with yield at 4.43%, EUR 2.5b of 2013 bonds with yield at 2.86% and EUR 1.34b of 2017 floating-rate notes at 2.3%. Yields are noticeably higher than prior auctions. Major European stock indices are down around -1% for the moment. Weakness in Euro is seen across the board, in particular against dollar and Swissy. With the help from weakness in EUR/USD, dollar index manages to stay above 80 psychological level after initial dip today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3172; (P) 1.3267 (R1) 1.3333; More. EUR/USD's fall resumes after brief recovery and dips to as low as 1.3136 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside and current fall from 1.4281 should target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.3447 from 1.3785 at 1.2951 next. On the upside, above 1.3300 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But we'd expect strong resistance at 1.3447 to limit upside and bring another fall in that case. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Market Sentiment Lifted in the Near-term as Irish Bailout Deal FinalizedIreland and EU/IMF reached a bailout agreement over the weekend. The financial package will cover financing needs up to 85B euro but unusually 17.5B euro of it will come from Irish government cash reserve and from the national pension fund. Several terms are favorable for Ireland. For instance, senior bondholders of Irish banks are not subject to haircuts, there is no condition that Ireland must raise its 12.5% corporation tax and Ireland has been given one extra year, to 2015, in order to reduce its budget deficit to below 3% of GDP. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup also agreed on ways to deal with post 2013 bailouts and collective action clauses would be part of all new euro area government bonds starting in June 2013. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9965Despite intra-day rebound from 0.9989, as the greenback has retreated after meeting offers below Friday's high of 1.0055, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and risk of another corrective fall to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9965) remains but renewed buying interest should emerge there, bring another upmove later. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3250Euro's break of support at 1.3182 signals recent decline has resumed and the fall from 1.4283 should extend further weakness to 1.3150, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3110/15 (61.8% projection of 1.3786 to 1.3284 measuring from 1.3422) and risk from there has increased for a rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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