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Mid-Day Report: Risk Rebound Short Lived as Moody's Warns of Ireland Multi-Notch DowngradeThe Irish bailout triggered risk rally is rather short lived today and market reversed after Mood's Investors Service warned that it may have multi-notch downgrade for Ireland. Moody's said in a note today that the rescue package from EU/IMF would "crystallize more bank-contingent liabilities on the government balance sheet, and increase the Irish sovereign's debt burden". Previously, Moody's put Ireland on review and said it would likely cut the grade by one level. However, the increase in state debt would now exceed original expectations and a multi-notch downgrade" is "now the most likely outcome." Also, Irish banks stocks are pressured on that the bailout package will dilute existing investors. FTSE and CAC turns red after initial rally while while risk aversion helps dollar stages a strong rebound. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3609; (P) 1.3670 (R1) 1.3732; More. EUR/USD's recovery from 1.3447 was limited at 1.3785 and weakens sharply in early US session. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.3447 support will indicate that whole decline form 1.4281 has resumed for 1.3330 support and then near term rising trend line at 1.3226. Though, decisive break above 1.3785 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.4281 is finished and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4281 high. |
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Ireland Requests EU/ECB/IMF Funding. Major Conditionality On Banking StructureOver the weekend, Ireland eventually submitted formal application for financial assistance from the EU. This was welcomed by European financial ministers. As stated in the statement by the Eurogroup and ECOFIN, ministers believed that providing assistance to Ireland is 'warranted to safeguard financial stability in the European Union and in the euro area'. While further details have not been disclosed, the program will be around 80-100B euro and Ireland should not need to seek external funding in coming 3 years. If that's the case, it would be slightly smaller than the EUR110bn package provided for Greece in April. Concerning conditions for the funds, as Ireland stressed that corporate taxes will not be raised, the focus will probably be on banking sector restructuring. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6030Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.6085, as the British pound ran into heavy selling pressure just below previous resistance at 1.6095 and the breach of the flat ground Kijun-Sen has revived our bearishness for another fall to 1.5936 support but break there is needed to signal the rise from 1.5840 has ended and extend weakness towards previous support at 1.5888 later. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3710Euro's intra-day selloff after intra-day brief rise to 1.3786 and the breach of the Kijun-Sen confirm a top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias remains for test of 1.3631 support but break of 1.3584-88 (previous support and the current level of the lower Kumo) is needed to signal the rise from 1.3446 has ended at 1.3786 and bring further fall towards 1.3540/50. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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