Action Insight Daily Report 12-2-10

| Wednesday
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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Consolidation Continues as Markets Await ECB

Euro continues to consolidate above this week's low as markets await ECB rate decision. The broad-based selling of Euro halted as markets are expecting ECB to finally face reality of the worsening sovereign debt crisis in Eurozone and bow to the political pressure it's facing. Judging from the price actions, markets have probably priced in extensions of the current stimulus measures. However, it's quite clearly that investors are not convinced that the existing programs are sufficient to solve the problems in Eurozone peripherals. But opinions are divided on whether ECB would really do something new and Euro would spike either way after the meeting.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.39; (P) 130.99; (R1) 132.08; More

GBP/JPY's strong recovery and break of 130.83 indicates that a temporary low is at least in place at 129.32 and bias is turned neutral for the moment. Note that on the upside, break of 132.08 resistance will confirm that fall from 134.19 is finished with three waves down to 129.32. The corrective structure will then have bullish implications and suggests that rise from 126.42 is still in progress for another high above 134.19. On the downside, below 129.32 will bring another to retest 126.42 support though.

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ECB To Delay Exit From Non-Standard Measures

With the main refinancing rate staying a 1%, policymakers will decide whether to extend the full allotment of the 3-month tender at Thursday's ECB meeting. While council members have diverged opinions on the issue, re-emergence of sovereign crisis concerns in the European periphery suggests the central bank should delay exit steps. Therefore, we expect the ECB to announce extension of full allotment of the 3-month tender while the full allotment on the 1- week and 1-month tenders will also continue to another quarter. ECB staff will also release growth and inflation forecasts. Projections for 2010 will also be released for the first time.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Nov 7.60% 6.90% 6.40%
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q3 5.00% 6.00% -1.70%
0:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Oct 2.63B 2.13B 1.76B 1.81B
0:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Oct -1.10% 0.40% 0.30% 0.10%
6:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q3 0.70% 0.50% 0.90% 0.80%
6:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q3 3.00% 3.10% 3.40% 2.80%
8:15 CHF Retail Sales Y/Y Oct 4.90% 4.10%
9:30 GBP PMI Construction Nov 51.3 51.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.40% 0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q3 P 1.90% 1.90%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Oct 0.30% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Oct 4.30% 4.20%
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 425K 407K
13:30 USD Continuing Claims 4200K 4182K
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Oct -1.00% -1.80%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -26B -6B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3115

Despite yesterday's retreat from 1.3183, as the single currency found renewed buying interest above the Kijun-Sen, suggesting as long as intra-day support at 1.3087 holds, consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for another test of said resistance at 1.3183, break there would confirm a temporary low has been formed at 1.2969 and bring retracement of recent decline to 1.3215/20

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.70

Despite yesterday's rise from 83.38 to 84.40, as dollar has retreated after faltering below previous resistance at 84.41 (Monday's high), suggesting further consolidation would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 83.71) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 83.38 would hold, bring another rise later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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