| November 2010 How to Watch the Election
 For political junkies, this election night is like the Oscars, the Olympics and a heavyweight prize fight all rolled into one.
Not only is control of Congress up for grabs, but it is happening in a political climate not quite like anything before.
Getting to see how the most Republican-leaning electorate to ever be depicted in polls translates to votes and actual elections will be the answer to the greatest political riddle since, “Can Barack Obama really beat Hillary Clinton?”
And after all the months of posturing and poll reading, 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday will finally start to bring real answers. The Stakes
Republicans know they will be picking up seats, but their projections call for such huge gains that GOPers can scarcely believe what their own numbers tell them. When gains of 50 House seats start looking like conservative estimates, political professionals wonder if they are missing something.
In private, Democratic strategists treat the House as a lost cause. They will be looking at the degree of damage inflicted. They’ve seen the storm coming, and will be waiting to see whether they can ride it out.
Republicans squeezing out a small House majority would be bad news for Democrats, but not nearly as bad as the kind of wipeout that national polls suggest is coming. Not only would it be harder to oust Republicans in two years, but such a repudiation would turn President Obama into a kind of pre-lame duck.
If Republicans win 40 or 45 seats and claw their way to a majority of a handful of seats, the Obama coalition may survive and rebound in 2012. If Republicans romp to a 60-seat triumph, it is a setback for Democrats that may last 15 years or more.
In the House, degrees of defeat matter. In the Senate, it is a pass-fail test for the majority party.
The first priority for Democrats nationally is to hold on to a Senate majority of any size. Republicans will certainly have enough seats to filibuster any big legislative proposals, so all Democrats are looking for is to hold on to 51 seats.
On that point, they have reason to be optimistic. Of the dozen competitive Senate races, Democrats need only win three to hold on to the upper chamber. Their best chances for the three wins they need are in Connecticut, California and Washington.
That’s why Democrats would greet Senate wins in any states other than their seven non-competitive races (Maryland, Hawaii, Oregon, Vermont, Delaware and two in New York) with jubilation. It would almost certainly mean that the Senate is secure.
The Setup
As Tuesday afternoon goes on, turnout numbers and exit poll results will start to filter out – not numbers on races, but tantalizing tidbits about the electorate. Did black voters answer President Obama’s call? Are Republican-leaning counties showing a surge?
Avoid getting sucked in too much to these what-if scenarios.
We’ve seen months of polling that shows this is shaping up to be an election like no other. Never in the history of professional polling have Republicans been at such an advantage going into an election. But until we start seeing actual votes in actual precincts, it’s all conjecture.
These numbers will help the Fox News Decision Desk forecast winners in specific races once the ballots start getting counted, but as John Kerry’s supporters remember well, exit polls and turnout estimates can lead you to the wrong conclusions.
While there will be many fascinating personalities and story lines to play out in individual races – the agony and the ecstasy of big-time politics – the first order of business is to figure out the size of the Republican wave we’ve heard rumbling since the summer of 2009.
Stock up the fridge (and maybe the liquor cabinet) and settle in for an incredible seven hours of political television. Online, check out our interactive election map for the latest polling numbers in key races (and live results on Election Night), and read the latest updates from our reporters covering the election all around the country on the AEHQ blog. | |  ADVERTISEMENT | |
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