Action Insight Weekly Report 1-16-10

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Euro Rebounded Strongly, Key Resistance Level Watched Before Confirming Reversal

Euro staged an impressively strong rebound last week and reversed recent fortune on a couple of factors. Firstly, bond auctions in Portugal was unexpectedly successfully which, at least temporarily, took bailout off the table. Secondly, ECB Trichet surprised the markets and struck a hawkish tone in the post meeting press conference which raised speculation of a rate hike in the latter half of 2011. Thirdly, there were speculations that EU will finally boost the bailout fund after the meeting in Brussels in the early part of this week. EUR/USD had only a brief stay below 1.3 psychological and closed firmly at 1.3387 after a strong rebound. Rebound in EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP were also impressive. While it looks like Euro has established pivotal support in the first two weeks of the year, it has yet to take out some key near term resistance. Some more follow through buying in the common currency is still needed to confirm bottoming.
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's reversal from 1.2873 and strong rebound from there suggest that fall from 1.4281 is possibly finished at 1.2873 already. We'd favor another rise another as 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3158) holds. Decisive break of 1.3469 resistance will confirm this case and target 1.4281. Also, note that the corrective structure of the fall, with 1.2643 support intact, will indicate that rebound from 1.1875 is possibly not over yet and another high above 1.4281 would likely be seen. On the downside, sustained trading below 4 hours 55 EMA will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.
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