Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-6-11

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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Losses Some Steam With Jobless Claims Back above 400k

Despite edging higher against European majors earlier today, dollar losses some steam in early US session after data showed jobless claims rose back to above 400k level at 409k. Nevertheless, note that US treasury yields are helping dollar's rally in this first week of 2011. Thirty year yield (TNX) was sharply up from last week's low of 4.331 and is back above 4.55. We're cautiously bullish in yield for the moment and expect TNX to climb through recent high of 4.624. In that case, dollar would likely be taken higher, in particular with USD/JPY breaking through 84.49 resistance. Meanwhile, we'd like to point out again that the sustainability of dollar's rebound will also depend on whether gold and oil could hold on to 1350 and 90 respectively.
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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3075; (P) 1.3200 (R1) 1.3275; More.
EUR/USD is still bounded in range of 1.3054/3433 and neutral term outlook remains neutral. As noted before, recent price actions from 1.2969 are likely consolidation patterns, possibly in form of triangle. That is, fall from 1.4281 is not over yet. Below 1.3054 will indicate that such decline is resuming for 1.2969 and below. On the upside, above 1.3433 will dampen this view and bring stronger rebound for 1.3785 resistance instead.
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2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast

JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing

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Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011

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Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower

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US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus

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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Nov -4.20% -3.60% 9.30% 8.30%
08:15 CHF CPI M/M Dec 0.00% -0.20% 0.20%
08:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Dec 0.50% 0.30% 0.20%
09:30 GBP PMI Services Dec 49.7 53 53
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Dec 106.2 105.5 105.3 105.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Dec -11 -9 -9.4 -9
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Dec 4 1.9 0.9 1
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Dec 9.8 10.1 10.2 10
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Nov -0.80% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Nov 0.10% 2.10% 1.40% 1.20%
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Nov 5.20% 0.90% 1.60%
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders Y/Y Nov 20.60% 15.80% 17.90% 18.00%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 409K 404K 388K
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Dec 54 57.5
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -135B -136B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9600

Although the greenback rose marginally to 0.9708, lack of follow through buying suggests consolidation would take place and retracement towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9608) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9600 and bring another upmove later towards resistance area at 0.9722-35
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5540

Cable's intra-day retreat from 1.5564 suggests bearishness remains for a test of yesterday's low at 1.5451, below would extend weakness to indicated lower range at 1.5434, however, a breach of this level is needed to confirm a downside break of the indicated 1.5434-1.5665 range has occurred and extend fall to 1.5400, however, reckon support at 1.5367 would hold from here.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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