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Mid-Day Report: Euro Mildly Lower after Fitch Downgrades Ireland, BoE Stands PatEuro is back under mild pressure against dollar after Fitch slashed Ireland's sovereign rating by three notches from A+ to BBB+. Fitch noted in the statement that "the scale and pace of the deterioration of public finances, continuing contingent fiscal and macro-financial risks emanating from the banking sector, combined with the highly uncertain economic outlook and loss of market access, means that Ireland's sovereign credit profile is no longer consistent with a high investment grade rating". Also, the downgrade reflected additional costs of restructuring and banking sector after securing the bailout from EU/IMF. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5702; (P) 1.5768; (R1) 1.5870; More. Outlook in GBP/USD remains mixed as it's still struggling to take out 1.5838 resistance decisively and weakens mildly in early US session. As noted before, with 1.5838 resistance intact, fall from 1.6298 is possibly still in progress but we're not too confident about it. Below 1.5655 minor support will bring retest of 1.5484 support. But break there is needed to confirm resumption of fall from 1.6298. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5838 resistance will indicate that whole decline from 1.6298 is completed at 1.5484 already. In such case, stronger rise would be seen to 1.6093 resistance and likely further to 1.6298 and above. |
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RBNZ Left OCR Unchanged. Future Rate Hikes LimitedThe RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% in December as domestic economic growth was slower than previously expected. The central bank expects interest rates will rise to a 'more limited extent over the next 2 years than signaled in the September Statement'. In the latest set of economic forecasts, the RBNZ revised lower GDP forecasts for 2010/11 while upgrading growth in 2011/12. We view the statement as more dovish that the previous one and the schedule of tightening may be pushed later. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9835Despite intra-day fall to 0.9821, the subsequent anticipated rebound from there has retained our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias remains for test of 0.9916 (yesterday's high), break of this resistance would add credence to our view that the fall from 1.0067 has possibly ended at 0.9726 on Monday and bring a test of previous resistance at 0.9951, however, above there is needed to confirm and encourage for further rise to 1.0000. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9905Although aussie's rebound from yesterday's low at 0.9753 suggests near term upside bias is for marginal gain to 0.9905/10, as long as resistance at 0.9966 (this week's high) holds, further consolidation would take place and another retreat is likely, a break of said support would signal the rebound from 0.9536 (A leg bottom of the major correction) has ended and bring weakness to 0.9700 and later towards 0.9620/30. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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